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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-12-05T14:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-12-05T14:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18445/-1
CME Note: Partial halo S in SOHO LASCO C2; during STEREO A data gap. Associated with a filament eruption centered near S45W10 (filament extending from E20 to W40), visible in SDO AIA 171/193/304 beginning 2021-12-05T11:30Z. Weak combined arrival signature with the CME with ID 2021-12-06T05:48:00-CME-001. Gradual increase in B_total, peaking at 9.95nT at 2021-12-11T03:27Z, increases also seen in density, temperature, and briefly in the solar wind speed (peaking at 337km/s).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-12-10T13:27Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-12-09T18:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2021-12-05T23:37Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 325
Longitude (deg): 19E
Latitude (deg): 20S
Half-angular width (deg):  30

Notes: Low confidence. No Stereo A imagery and weak signal. Bulk of CME likely passing south of Earth.
Space weather advisor: Kirk Waite

Lead Time: 108.45 hour(s)
Difference: 19.45 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2021-12-06T01:00Z

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